Wise Decision Making – Part 1
I will have a lot to say about wise decision making in future blogs, but today I want to focus on one aspect: the consideration of worst-case scenarios.
According to Wikipedia, a worst-case scenario is “a concept in risk management wherein the planner, in planning for potential disasters, considers the most severe possible outcome that can reasonably be projected to occur in a given situation. Conceiving of worst-case scenarios is a common form of strategic planning, specifically scenario planning, to prepare for and minimize contingencies that could result in accidents, quality problems, or other issues.”
In order to make a wise decision about anything, we should consider the worst-case scenario. This is a version of a risk/reward analysis. If you go to the grocery store without a mask and fail to socially distance, the reward is that you get your groceries, and you are not inconvenienced by what some consider silly new social norms. The risk, or worst-case scenario, is: you contract COVID, and spread it to your family and loved ones. [1]
I’m not just talking about grocery shopping, however. Recent events lead me to believe that the failure to evaluate worst-case scenarios before making decisions is widespread. Consider the following recent examples:
how seriously to take the COVID pandemic;
how law enforcement should have prepared for the January 6th storming of the Capitol;
the reliability of Texas’ power grid when faced with record-cold temperatures; and,
Ted Cruz’s decision to fly to Cancun when his constituents were without power and/or water.
In each of these examples, if the decision makers had considered the worst-case scenario of their decisions before they made them, they would have likely made much different decisions (What is worth it, Ted?).
Why is that we make decisions without considering worst-case scenarios? Stupidity? Myopia? Over-confidence bias? Failure to consult with or heed the advice of educated professionals?
This can be an area where blind optimism is not your friend, and what is needed, instead, is a dose of cautious pessimism.
If you don’t look for the potholes in the road, you may get lucky; but, if not, you may wind up stranded on the side of the road with a busted wheel in a snow storm.
Facing a tough decision? Call me for a free coaching session and learn more about wise decision making.