Are You Sure?
The best predictions are still matters of probability rather than certainty.
Alan Watts
None of us knows as much as we think we do. In my study of wisdom, I have concluded the universe consists of little we humans would call certain.[1] There may be a lot of probables, all in varying degrees - maybe. Imagine a spectrum with “highly likely” on one end, and “no way,” on the other. That is where we live: the land of probables and uncertainties. If you will not be convinced unless you are absolutely certain of something, you will spend a lot of time dreaming the impossible dream. As a practical matter, few of us have time for this, and, as Daniel Kahneman has pointed out, we rely on mental short-cuts, also known as “heuristics.”
Understanding the ubiquity and challenges of uncertainty is the task of the sage. This will be one of a series of articles about how sages express the uncertainties and paradoxes of life and how understanding this may lead to greater wisdom.
By the time we have completed this journey, I believe you will agree with me that uncertainty is “where the action is,” and certainty is either an illusion or just plain boring. Uncertainty is where a wise or foolish decision can make us or break us, and, because life is so unpredictable (a synonym of uncertain), we never know when we may face a life-changing choice.
How do we prepare? By practicing wisdom in our daily choices, no matter how mundane: food choices, sleep choices, relationship choices, financial choices, career choices. If you do that, you will at least have some practice when confronting the tougher decisions in life like whether to put a parent into a nursing facility; what to do about an ambiguous cancer diagnosis; or, whether to stay in a dysfunctional marriage or take your chances with online dating.
The following story of an old Chinese farmer has been told many times. You may have heard it before. If you saw the 2007 movie, Charlie Wilson’s War, with Tom Hanks and Philip Seymour Hoffman, you may recall at the end of the movie, Tom Hanks is ebullient over his success to help the people of Afghanistan. Philip Seymour Hoffman, acting as the quintessential buzzkill, tells him this story, described in the film as a “Zen parable.”
It is actually Taoist, but I’m guessing the producers of the movie did not believe enough people were familiar with Taoism; “Zen” has a more familiar ring. This story exemplifies one way the sage addresses the common problem we all face when attempting to predict the uncertainties of the future.
We Shall See[2]
There was once an old man who had one son and one horse, both of whom he valued very highly. One day the horse ran away, and his neighbors came over to console him. “Oh, what a great misfortune,” they said, “your horse is gone! How will you ever afford to get another?”
The old man sat and smoked his pipe[3] and only said, “We shall see.”
Then, a few days later, the horse came back, accompanied by several wild horses, tripling his herd. Again, the neighbors visited, this time to congratulate the old man on his great luck. Again, he merely sat and smoked and said, “We shall see.”
A short time later, his son was thrown from one of the wild horses and broke his leg in several places. The neighbors all arrived, calling out, “Ah great misfortune, your son will never walk again.” But again, the old man merely sat quietly in front of his house and, between puffs of his pipe, said, “We shall see.”
Sometime after that, the army came through the village, rounding up all of the young men to press them into service and send them to the battlefront far away in the frozen north [where, legend has it, they all died in battle]. But with his crippled leg, the man’s son was left behind. Though crippled, he managed to care for his father until his death many years later.
Lieh Tzu
As a lawyer, many clients have asked me how their case will turn out if we go to court. My stock (admittedly somewhat smartass) answer is, “My crystal ball is broken.” I can give them my opinion about the strengths and weaknesses of their case and the factors a judge will consider, but going to trial is a trip into the unknown. Negotiations can be just as unpredictable. Expect the unexpected! Beware of the bias of wishful thinking and “fortune telling,”[4] which some psychologists label as a “cognitive distortion.”
The Uncertainty of the Present and Past
What about the present? Do we really know what we think we know, and see what we think we see?
Between your central mental portal[5], where your brain processes impressions and perceptions, and that point where the mind/brain spits out opinions, beliefs, and conclusions, we encounter: genetics, years of self-confirmed mindsets, cultural biases, family biases, and various complex emotions. Past associated or similar experiences[6] barrage our impressions and perceptions before they jell into opinions. What comes out the other end is mental sausage, which may only slightly resemble “reality.” Where things really get tricky is that reality is constantly changing so by the time you mentally digest an experience and form your opinions and conclusions so as to keep your mental world in some version of order, the damned stuff has changed.
Our memories are subject to the same issues but worse because we have a tendency to revise them and rework them to make our mental lives more orderly and ourselves look better in hindsight.
Unless you are a Zen master, you will distort what you experience and, further, how you remember it. The sage knows this.
As Immanuel Kant pointed out, we do not really have the capacity to even know ourselves because whatever or whomever we observe is an object of our perceptions, and our perceptions are tainted for the reasons stated above. At best, knowledge based upon experience takes us back to the world of probabilities. [7]
According to Meacham (1990), wisdom required an understanding that knowledge is fallible and of maintaining a position between knowing and doubting. Since there is no limit to what can be known[8], one must understand what one does not know. Meacham developed the ‘knowledge context matrix’ (1990, p. 184). One’s position on the matrix is determined by one’s perception of how much one knows, balanced with what one does not know, in relationship with all that can be known. Wisdom is not a set of beliefs or a fixed body of knowledge. Rather, the essence of wisdom is both knowing and doubting and the balance between the two. Dating back to ancient philosophers, the belief that one can see all that can be seen and know all that can be known is evidence of the lack of wisdom.”[9] (emphasis supplied).
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One way to judge how relatively wise or foolish a person may be is to listen for uncertainty. Relatively foolish people are always sure of what they are saying, especially when they are wrong or when there is no right answer.[10]
Another way is to listen for questions. A relatively foolish person will make more definitive, declarative sentences; a wise person will ask a lot of questions.
Wisdom is humble.
So, where would we find this thing called “certainty,” and is it more important than uncertainty?
If you believe some of this sounds foolish, you are probably correct.
And, now for a word from our sponsor.[11]
[1] But, I am not certain of that!
[2] Tales from the Tao: Inspirational Teachings from the Great Taoist Masters, Solala Tower, at 6.
[3] What was in the pipe is left to the imagination of the reader.
[4] https://cogbtherapy.com/cbt-blog/cognitive-distortion-fortune-telling#:~:text=Fortune%20telling%20is%20a%20cognitive,the%20course%20of%20cognitive%20restructuring.
[5] If any neuroscientists are reading this, please allow me some license for colloquialism.
[6] I’m sure I am leaving out a neurological process or two.
[7] https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00322/full#:~:text=QP%20theory%20is%20a%20geometric,but%20with%20some%20additional%20properties.
[8] Is this true?
[9] A Handbook of Wisdom: Psychological Perspectives, Ed. By Robert J. Sternberg and Jennifer Jordan (Cambridge University Press, 2005) at 22, 23.
[10] Maybe.
[11] Of course, I don’t really have a sponsor, but I used to watch Alfred Hitchcock Presents (in the 50’s, in black and white), and, nerdy at an early age, something about that phrase struck me as cool, and I’ve always wanted to use it.