Uncertainty – Part Two

Introduction 

Conceit is the problem.

There is an epidemic of conceit in the world among the human species. The current conflict in Ukraine is the most obvious example, but we can think of many other examples of powerful political leaders believing, and assuring others, that they are “right,” when they most assuredly are not.

Conceit and ignorance are a bad combination. Conceit discounts uncertainty and deludes us to think that beliefs about certainty are the truth about reality. It also assumes that reality does not change, or, if it does, it changes predictably. Decisions made on bases such as these can lead to disastrous results. Don’t take it from me, ask Mr. Putin.

On April 29, 2022, I posted “Are You Sure?” In it, I promised a series of articles about how understanding uncertainties and paradoxes leads to increased wisdom. This is Part Two.

In 2015, a couple of notable social psychologists published The Wisest One in the Room: How You can Benefit from Social Psychology’s Most Powerful Insights. Thomas Gilovich is a professor of psychology at Cornell and author of several books. Lee Ross is a professor of psychology at Stanford. They present a unique view of wisdom. In this brief article, I will give you a synopsis of that view and explain their concept of “naïve realism” and how it relates to conceit and wisdom. With the exception of a few comments, I will let the experts speak for themselves, offering a few excerpts from their book.

The Social Psychologist’s View of Wisdom

“Insight and skill in dealing with human conflict have been seen as particularly important elements of wisdom.” [1]

“Any analysis of wisdom must reflect the fact that the most important things in life involve other people.” [2]

“Wisdom requires understanding the most common and most powerful influences on people’s behavior. It also requires when and why people get off track and end up making faulty judgments, erroneous predictions, and poor decisions. To be wise, one must be psyche-wise.” [3]

“Wisdom also requires perspective, something that runs through all three components of Webster’s definition: knowledge, insight, and judgment. A wise person is able to put individual events in perspective and take a broader view of the issue at hand.” [4]

Wisdom versus Intelligence 

“A critical difference between wisdom and intelligence is that wisdom demands some insight and effectiveness around people. Intelligence does not. A person can be ‘smart’ without being smart about people, but it makes no sense to say someone is wise if the person has no feel for people or no understanding of their hopes, fears, passions, or drives.” [5]

“… the difference between wisdom and intelligence is noteworthy. Intelligence involves taking the information available and processing it effectively – thinking about it logically and drawing sound conclusions. That is certainly an important component of wisdom. But a wise person does something else – a wise person goes beyond the information that is immediately available. Wisdom involves knowing when the information available is insufficient for the problem at hand. It involves the recognition that how things are right now might seem very different down the road.” [6]

The Objectivity Illusion 

“… the tendency to treat our sense of what’s out there as a matter of objective perception rather than subjective interpretation lies at the root of many types of human folly.” [7]

This leads us to what Professors Gilovich and Ross call, “the objectivity illusion.”

Have you ever noticed that anyone driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone driving faster than you is a maniac?  

George Carlin

“Indeed, in one of his many quoted statements, Einstein went as far as to maintain that ‘reality is an illusion.’” [8]

Naïve Realism 

“Psychologists, following the lead of Lee [Ross] and his colleagues, refer to the seductive and compelling sense that one sees the world the way it is, and not as a subjective take on the world, as naïve realism. Recognizing that you and everyone else is a naïve realist is a vital step in becoming a wiser person. It will make you wiser about all sorts of experiences you will encounter in your daily life. It can help deal more effectively with disagreements with friends, family members, and coworkers. It will also make you wiser about political and social issues of great significance at a time when our nation and our troubled world are beset with disagreements and conflicts.” [9]

The power of naïve realism is alive and well, like a hungry tapeworm in the belly of our society. Paradoxically, while it eats away at the fabric of our social interactions, it feeds our conceit.

Look for it in your interactions with others.

Most “facts” are really only opinions. [10]

All beliefs are opinions.

All but the humblest opinions are based upon naïve realism.

Rather than being arrogant and self-assured when you confront a situation, do what I do: consult the Magic 8 Ball.

“Magic 8 Ball: Who is right, and who is wrong?” 

Magic 8 Ball: “Do you want my opinion?” 

“Yes.” 

“Answer uncertain. Try again later.”

What did you expect? Something more definitive? What if that is as definitive as it gets? [11]

Naïve realism is a basis for conceit at both the micro and macro levels of society. Coming to realize that life is never as certain as we would like to believe is the beginning of wisdom.

Astute readers may now ask: can we be certain that something is uncertain? Another pesky paradox to discuss with the Magic 8 Ball.

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There's a whole lot of people in trouble tonight from the disease of conceit.
Whole lot of people seeing trouble tonight from the disease of conceit.
Give you delusions of grandeur and an evil eye.
Give you the idea that you're too good to die.
Then, they bury you from head to your feet
From the disease of conceit. 

Bob Dylan

[1] Page 2. Examples: Solomon, Nelson Mandela.

[2] Page 4.

[3] Id.

[4] Id. I call this a “transcendental perspective.” Sages are good dot-connectors.

[5] Page 3.

[6] Id. The sage considers consequences and the long view.

[7] Page 17.

[8] Page 13.

[9] Page 17.

[10] I’m not suggesting that an objective reality does not exist but, whatever it may be, you are viewing it through a prism of biases.

[11] If you are one of those unfortunate people without your own Magic 8 Ball, you’re in luck because there is now an on-line version: https://www.indra.com/8ball/front.html.